H1N1: Why you don't need to be afraid...

[zalena]

dr_tectonic and I went to Cafe Scientifique. The topic was changed from infection control to H1N1 virus. It might be exaggerating a bit to call the experience horrible, but I'm not sure I would go, again. The speaker clearly knew a lot, but seemed unable to present this information in an interesting, engaging, or non-repetitive way. As Beemer put it, "There were too many questions I could've answered---even as a non-specialist---in a better and more specific way."

Beemer's powers of explanation, aside, (and I do believe this talent it a kind of superpower!) it was hot, dragged out uncomfortably, and while there were various doctors and epidemiologists in the audience most of the questions were along the level of,

"I read a book that said that those of us who had ancestors who survived the black plague had resistance to the flu."

Dude! If your ancestors didn't survive the Black Plague you wouldn't be here!

The obvious question involved is whether or not parents are able to pass on antibodies to disease. Inherited Immunity. The short answer is no. The long answer is we don't know. Nevertheless the speaker wasn't really able to sort this out in her response.

And that was my other big problem with the speaker, who seemed unable to utter the words, 'We don't know." The longer she spoke the more apparent it became that scientists STILL don't know what causes mortality from influenza: the actual virus, secondary infections, or the immune response.

However, if I got anything out of the lecture it is the following. The H1N1 virus is not particularly virulent in its current form. What everybody's all bunchy about is it's possible mutation/recombination with the H5N1 virus (avian flu) which is incredibly virulent, but not passed person-to-person like H1N1.

Also, the speaker also said that only 2% of the population in 1918 died from the epidemic. Which is why even in a worst case scenario we shouldn't be afraid, but might want to make plans to have enough food not to require going to the grocery store a few weeks.

On the way home B and I talked about the lecture, it's shortcomings, and some of the problematic messages emerging from public health. I was really annoyed by some of the policy speak she used, like the way she said, 'limit social contact' instead of stating the obvious 'don't go to work when you are sick.'

We also talked about whether it might be advantageous to discourage people from coming to the hospital unless extremely sick in case of an epidemic. This led to a discussion about over-utilization, and an article Beemer read in the New Yorker, and a study I heard about on the radio.

Anyway, it was an interesting evening saved by the presence of Dr. T. I'm going to try out the Ft. Collins group. But I'm not sure this is going to be my thing.

I described the speaker as being 'someone who clearly knew lots of interesting things, she just didn't seem to know what they were.' (Someone who would probably be great to interview or brain pick, but not necessarily a good presenter of information.) This made me wonder if we're all the same way.

In that vein, what do you think I know about that you would like to see me explore more fully? What information am I not sharing with you in which you would be interested?

Comments

[ng-nighthawk.livejournal.com]

In theory, I could have an ancestor who died of the plague but who procreated before dying, right? Assuming his children who are also my ancestors survived...

I mean, only three of my direct ancestors have avoided dying of something thus far, and none of them seem likely to hold out forever (although you never know--cyborgs, the Rapture, Enlightenment, vampirism... there are many ways a person could avoid death, why should I rule out my grandmother or parents?)

[sakuratea.livejournal.com]

that child would still be an ancestor who survived the plague.

[sakuratea.livejournal.com]

LOL! People are silly about human ev, but I still blame Spencer :)

People are still having sex!

[zalena.livejournal.com]

I have a new favorite evolutionary whipping goat: Mr. Ascent of Man, Alfred Machin. He is responsible for the new-agey human potential interpretation that is still with us today. (Integral studies, etc.)

But I have permanently taken against Spencer for his treatment of George Eliot. He pretty much treated her like she was not sufficiently evolved (aka pretty) enough to be an appropriate partner for his glorious self. She responded by following in love and living openly with the already married George Henry Lewes whose numerous offspring are proof that one does not need to attractive nor particularly successful to achieve ones evolutionary objective.

[ashfae.livejournal.com]

Dude! If your ancestors didn't survive the Black Plague you wouldn't be here!

*cracks up*

The discouraging people to go to the doctor/hospital unless extremely sick thing is happening out here somewhat. I find it rather odd. On one hand I see the logic, on the other hand it seems to defeat the purpose...